This document reports on progress and current status within WP3 regarding the “Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emission Budgets & Uncertainties” developed and needed in CHE. The scope of WP3 “Coordinating efforts on Uncertainty trade-off for fossil fuel emissions” is to generate a reliable uncertainty band with global and regional coverage for the yearly (and possibly monthly) emission budgets, that are the composite of biospheric fluxes and anthropogenic fluxes. Uncertainties are key when connecting in a bidirectional way the bottom-up inventories with the top down assimilations.
This report is the outcome of Task 3.3 "Providing emission uncertainties and correlations from inventories and statistics" and focusses on the anthropogenic component. Starting from 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC2006) and considering 2019 Refinements to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC2019) the global grid-maps of EDGARv4.3.2_FT2015 inventory delivering anthropogenic CO2 emissions for 2015 were updated with improved apportionment of the energy sector and the energy used for manufacturing and with diffusive CO2 emissions from coal mines. Uncertainties were calculated per country and sector considering the most typical fuel type using the error propagation method. According to the IPCC2006 guidance all emissions are considered to be fully uncorrelated, this assumption is further used to calculate uncertainty and covariance matrices. The uncertainties and the share to the total uncertainty are presented for the 7 ECMWF groups of sectors and two distinct country types with well and less developed statistical infrastructure. While the uncertainty of most groups remains small, the largest contribution to the total uncertainty is determined by rather small but relative uncertain group OTHER, which consists of oil refineries and transformation industry, fuel exploitation, coal production, agricultural soils and solvents and products use emissions.